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[Classic] Odds of successfully pulling a Missed Me!

 
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Tinhorn Huckster
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Joined: 13 May 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:00 am    Post subject: [Classic] Odds of successfully pulling a Missed Me! Reply with quote

Hey there, guys! So, Missed Me! requires two pairs to pull off, right? Assuming a roll of 4d8 or 4d10, what are the odds of successfully casting Missed Me! without incurring in Backlash? That is, can I rely on it as a defensive Hex?
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Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?
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Noshrok Grimskull
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm just going by standard Poker odds here, drawing 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards.

The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%.
But that's not accounting for Jokers and the chance of Raises (i.e. more cards to build your hand from).
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Tinhorn Huckster
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Joined: 13 May 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Noshrok Grimskull wrote:
The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%.


Wow. That's... Quite low, actually. I think I'll pass on the Hex, then.
Thanks!
_________________
Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?
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RJack
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Joined: 27 Jun 2006
Posts: 341
Location: Mad Zone, Wiskaton

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Try here.

Odds of 2 pair (or better) from different hand sizes with two jokers in the deck:

#Cards
5 12.7%
6 28.5%
7 46.8%
8 71.2%
9 87.1%
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rungok
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Joined: 09 May 2011
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd suggest taking bodyguard instead. That one starts with Ace and works its way up. It's not as fancy as preventing someone from shooting you, but it DOES allow you to absorb wounds if you get shot.

That's also got the benefit of being more subtle. You're just really tough seeming, not unnaturally deflecting bullets out of the air.
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ogbendog
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Joined: 29 Jul 2004
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I ran DLC, Bodyguard was the defensive hex of choice.
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Tinhorn Huckster
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Joined: 13 May 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmmm... But is Bodyguard's protection value up to snuff?
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Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?
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ogbendog
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

depends who your foes are.
if you are facing someone that does a lot of damage, Missed me might be better

against pistols and such, Bodyguard was better.

I'm AFB right now, but I seem to recall that MissedMe you sustain, but bodyguard lasts until it wears off?
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Tinhorn Huckster
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Joined: 13 May 2009
Posts: 166

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see. Guess I'll take Bodyguard, then.
Thanks a lot for the help, everyone! Smile
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Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck?
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View user's profile Send private message
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