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Tinhorn Huckster Seasoned

Joined: 13 May 2009 Posts: 159
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:00 am Post subject: [Classic] Odds of successfully pulling a Missed Me! |
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Hey there, guys! So, Missed Me! requires two pairs to pull off, right? Assuming a roll of 4d8 or 4d10, what are the odds of successfully casting Missed Me! without incurring in Backlash? That is, can I rely on it as a defensive Hex? _________________ Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck? |
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Noshrok Grimskull Legendary

Joined: 07 Nov 2004 Posts: 3822 Location: I'm out of my mind, but I'll be back later
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:22 am Post subject: |
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I'm just going by standard Poker odds here, drawing 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards.
The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%.
But that's not accounting for Jokers and the chance of Raises (i.e. more cards to build your hand from). _________________ "If you think I'm crazy, you should see the people I'm locked up with." - Steamdriven
"This is my timey-wimey detector. Goes 'ding' when there's stuff." - The Doctor (Doctor Who) |
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Tinhorn Huckster Seasoned

Joined: 13 May 2009 Posts: 159
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:20 am Post subject: |
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| Noshrok Grimskull wrote: | | The odds of getting only a single Pair or less are 92.4%, so the odds of getting Two Pairs or better are just 7.6%. |
Wow. That's... Quite low, actually. I think I'll pass on the Hex, then.
Thanks! _________________ Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck? |
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RJack Seasoned
Joined: 27 Jun 2006 Posts: 320 Location: Mad Zone, Wiskaton
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:31 am Post subject: |
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Try here.
Odds of 2 pair (or better) from different hand sizes with two jokers in the deck:
#Cards
5 12.7%
6 28.5%
7 46.8%
8 71.2%
9 87.1% |
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rungok Novice
Joined: 09 May 2011 Posts: 44
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:41 am Post subject: |
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I'd suggest taking bodyguard instead. That one starts with Ace and works its way up. It's not as fancy as preventing someone from shooting you, but it DOES allow you to absorb wounds if you get shot.
That's also got the benefit of being more subtle. You're just really tough seeming, not unnaturally deflecting bullets out of the air. |
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ogbendog Heroic
Joined: 29 Jul 2004 Posts: 1950
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| When I ran DLC, Bodyguard was the defensive hex of choice. |
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Tinhorn Huckster Seasoned

Joined: 13 May 2009 Posts: 159
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:39 pm Post subject: |
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Hmmm... But is Bodyguard's protection value up to snuff? _________________ Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck? |
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ogbendog Heroic
Joined: 29 Jul 2004 Posts: 1950
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Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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depends who your foes are.
if you are facing someone that does a lot of damage, Missed me might be better
against pistols and such, Bodyguard was better.
I'm AFB right now, but I seem to recall that MissedMe you sustain, but bodyguard lasts until it wears off? |
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Tinhorn Huckster Seasoned

Joined: 13 May 2009 Posts: 159
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Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:16 am Post subject: |
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I see. Guess I'll take Bodyguard, then.
Thanks a lot for the help, everyone!  _________________ Why, yes, indeed: I am rather proud of my skill at discourse - my rhetorics, if you will. It would be my great pleasure to broker peace between you good sirs and the Indians.
Incidentally, would any of you gentlemen lend me a deck? |
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